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AI's First Crack: Broadcom Forecast Miss Erases $300B, Tests the Infrastructure Thesis
Private-credit gating reaches Blackstone's flagship as SpaceX prices a record $1.78T IPO into a fragile tape.
 • MDB Research
Labor Re-Acceleration Hardens the Hawkish Case as Private-Credit Gating Goes Mainstream
Cliffwater and Partners Group cap redemptions on named retail funds, confirming the liability-side stress that canonically precedes the asset-side…
 • MDB Research
AI Buildout Reaches Macro Scale as Berkshire Backs Alphabet's $80B Raise
Hormuz's 18th binary reversal in 48-72 hours leaves Friday's energy-reducers caught flat as oil reverses 4-6% higher.
 • MDB Research
Escalation Reasserts in Hormuz as Nvidia Storms the PC Market
Q1 retail strength revealed as a tax-refund-and-BNPL mirage, sharpening the consumer cliff thesis just as Warsh inherits a stagflation committee.
 • MDB Research

May 2026

Weekly Intelligence Review: May 25–31, 2026
When Verification Beats Conviction: How a Pre-Committed Framework Survived the Hormuz Whipsaw
 • MDB Research
AI's Great Bifurcation Hits the Earnings Line as Oil Plunges 20% on Hormuz Framework
Gap's 14% guidance-driven collapse marks the first hard crack in the mid-market consumer just as the bond market begins pricing meaningful Middle East…
 • MDB Research
Hormuz Deal Collapses as US-Iran Exchange Airstrikes; GDP Revision Confirms Stagflation in Official Data
Consumer distress deepens as 401k hardship withdrawals signal the deepest savings buffers are being raided ahead of an H2 spending cliff.
 • MDB Research
Oil Whipsaws on Iran Deal Framework as Strikes Continue; Markets Choose Peace Narrative
HYG credit protection positioning hits cycle extremes at 3.61 P/C ratio while spreads paradoxically tighten to 2.72%, signaling institutional hedging of…
 • MDB Research
US Strikes Iranian Targets as Trump Claims Deal 'Largely Negotiated' — Markets Bet on Diplomacy Over Escalation
Real wages confirmed negative across the developed world as ECB signals hikes proceed regardless of oil resolution.
 • MDB Research
Investment Research Report: Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)
At 9x forward earnings with $8.6B in buyback authorization and a growing midstream floor, MPC offers asymmetric upside if Middle East supply disruptions…
 • MDB Research
First Physical Hormuz Transit Signals Potential De-Escalation as Fed Hawks Consolidate
Governor Waller becomes third FOMC official to endorse rate hikes, but the very inflation catalyst driving hawkishness may be evaporating as LNG tankers…
 • MDB Research
Weekly Intelligence Review: May 17–23, 2026
This week tested — and partially falsified — the central near-term bear thesis while confirming every medium-term structural concern.
 • MDB Research
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