Investment Research Report: Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)

At 9x forward earnings with $8.6B in buyback authorization and a growing midstream floor, MPC offers asymmetric upside if Middle East supply disruptions persist through summer driving season.

Executive Summary

Marathon Petroleum is experiencing the most powerful earnings revision cycle in its recent history. Current quarter EPS estimates have risen 130% in 90 days (from $4.91 to $11.26), driven by Middle East conflict-elevated crack spreads that pushed Q1 2026 refining margins to $17.74/bbl. At $254.65, the stock trades at approximately 9.0x …